In spring 2021, satellite imagery reveals a massive deployment of Russian troops near Ukrainian borders. It marks the beginning of an escalation that would culminate in the February 2022 invasion.
The first wave: April 2021
Between March and April 2021, Russia amasses approximately 100,000 soldiers in three areas:
- Crimea (annexed in 2014)
- Rostov Oblast (eastern border)
- Belarus (northern border)
Moscow describes the movements as routine "military exercises." Western intelligence is skeptical.
The diplomatic response
The Biden administration responds with:
- Sanctions against Russian officials
- Proposal for a Putin-Biden summit (which would take place in June 2021 in Geneva)
- Public warnings about the consequences of an invasion
Russia partially withdraws troops in late April but leaves heavy equipment in position — a signal that movements would resume.
The second wave: October 2021 - February 2022
From October 2021, the buildup resumes with greater intensity:
- November 2021: 90,000+ troops concentrated
- December 2021: Russia presents "security demands" to the West (NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe, guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO)
- January 2022: 130,000+ troops, field hospitals, blood reserves positioned
- February 2022: 190,000+ troops ready for invasion
The failure of deterrence
Despite public warnings from US intelligence (which correctly predicted the invasion date), diplomatic attempts failed. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched the full-scale invasion.
Lessons learned
The 2021 buildup demonstrates that:
- Russia planned the invasion months in advance
- Russian "military exercises" can be cover for real operations
- Deterrence based solely on sanctions was not sufficient