The weaponization of energy has become one of the main tools of Russian strategy against Europe. Since 2022, Moscow has systematically used energy supplies as political leverage.
European dependence pre-2022
Before the invasion, Europe was heavily dependent on Russia:
- 40% of natural gas imported into the EU came from Russia
- 27% of oil
- 46% of coal
- Some countries (Germany, Italy, Austria) had even higher dependencies
The blackmail strategy
After Western sanctions, Russia has:
Reduced gas supplies:
- June 2022: Nord Stream 1 flows reduced to 40%
- July 2022: further reduction to 20%
- September 2022: total shutdown
Pretexts used:
- "Turbine maintenance" (the turbine was in Canada for repairs)
- Technical "oil leaks"
- Sanctions that "prevent" supplies (false: sanctions explicitly excluded energy)
The impact on prices
European gas prices (TTF) exploded:
- Pre-crisis average: €20-30/MWh
- August 2022: peak of €350/MWh
- Record energy inflation across Europe
The European response
The EU reacted with:
- Supplier diversification: Algeria, Norway, Azerbaijan, LNG from USA and Qatar
- Demand reduction: -15% gas consumption in 2022
- Full storage: mandatory 90% fill before winter
- Price cap: market correction mechanism
- Renewables acceleration: REPowerEU plan
Results
European dependence on Russian gas has collapsed:
- Italy: from 40% to <5% (end 2024)
- Germany: from 55% to ~10%
- EU average: from 40% to ~15%
Consequences for Russia
Moscow has lost its main energy customer. Exports to China don't compensate for European losses, and discounted prices reduce revenues. The energy weapon has proven to be a double-edged sword.